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What s going on in Iran now?

June 17, 2009

I have some foreign friends (almost all of them are atheist) who have asked me same questions about new situations of Iran so I decided to write this post to answer them in one place . If you want to know my view about this before the election or you need some more info please visit my previous post.

First of all What happened ?
I don’t write about it very much because you can find about it in many news sites. In this election Mir hosein Mosavi had the highest chance to be elected probably the second chance belonged to Mehdi Karoobi and then Ahmadi nejad and Mohsen Rezai . Most people though that whether Mosavi would won the election in first stage (if he had won more than 50% of votes) or the result of election would be revealed in the second stage(if none of candidates could gain more than 50%)
in election day (12th of june) the atmosphere of society was strange : the government disabled Short Message Service of mobiles phones however most people (they announced 85%) participated in this elections but there were some signs that Ahmadinjead’s government didn’t like it and because of it a few people couldn’t vote! The most strange thing happened a few hours (about 2 hour) after end of the election . They began to announce the results(they count ballot by hand)!!! about 10 hours later ahamdinejad was the winner with a breaking a record in all election in the history of Iran .supreme leader the most powerful man in Iran(a mullah) admit it by sending a congratulation message.  For most people it was obvious that it is just Ahmadinjead’s swindler government designed result .although from the previous day the government had sent many police and anti riot forces to streets in Tehran many people without any call went to streets to object and it caused some violences . In this day the government intensified internet filtering (blocking all preposition’s sites and some popular sites like youtube and facebook again and for the first time yahoo messenger[it s very popular messenger among Iraninans] ) meanwhile  in the next days the objections got stronger and spread out to other large cities they repressed harder . Even in some cities they disabled mobile phones completely but in TV Ahamdinejad called all this something like unimportant discontent after a football match . This was a summary of what happened .
Now some of my points of views :
1  They have lost a large part of their legitimacy and if they insist on Ahmadinejad’s remaining they will lost the whole of their legitimacy. And most of people will be against them this time clearly so in this condition they can just govern in very militaristic atmosphere . However it s not good for them too but it is one of their two options . If they accept to falsify the election and perhaps a new election in this case the loose many things too . In fact in this scenario they have confessed to  their crimes in  the election and this victory of people encourage them for future events . So changing the people votes was really a foolish mistakes (all candidate believes in the bases of ISLAMIC republic and none of them (specially Mosavi) had proposed a fundamental change).

2 Many of these protesters were not pro Mosavi or pro Karoobi (like myself) they just vote for them and for many of their main reason was to prevent Ahmadinejad(again like myself) but at this time it seems that they need and want a leader and the only choice is Mosavi so this movement has became a green movement (green was the color of mosavi’s fans)

3  I am happy to have voted because now i feel i have right to say “WHERE IS MY VOTE?” (even for a mullah [read my previous post for more comment])
What will happen?
I don’t know! Perhaps the worst scenario: they will kill and arrest many of protesters and continue to govern in a militaristic atmosphere and people will know that reforming in ISLAMIC republic(!!!) is absolutely impossible .

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